Since winning the 2023 US Open to match Margaret Court’s tally of 24 Grand Slam titles, the possibility of Djokovic becoming the standalone record holder has been a hot topic of conversation in the media at each major tournament. 

But Dr Helen Heaviside-Brown, a Senior Lecturer in Psychology whose research explores the impact of expectancy on athletes, suggests Djokovic’s refusal to view the 2026 Australian Open as a “now or never” moment could be an attempt to shape the attitudes of the media and public towards him by downplaying the importance of this specific tournament in his pursuit of history. 

She said: “Media narratives can infiltrate the whole sporting system and influence the expectancies of journalists, the public, coaches, family members, friends, and opponents – but people thrive when feeling in control of their actions and environment. Therefore, Djokovic may be trying to reduce the expectancies held by others, allowing him to focus on performance and factors within his control, such as routine, preparation, and health. And, while he is publicly saying that he is grateful for what he has already achieved, his past accomplishments at the Australian Open will provide a strong sense of inner belief that more is yet to come, potentially at this tournament.” 

Discussing the impact such media expectations can have, Dr Heaviside-Brown added: “My research has shown that prolonged and pervasive expectancies from multiple sources can become intolerable. One athlete in my research described this accumulation of expectancies as feeling ‘like a Coke bottle that had been shaken up and was about to explode’. This leads to detrimental consequences such as fear of failure, reduced confidence, and impaired decision-making, which ultimately impacts performance and wellbeing. In the long-term, the weight of these expectancies has been reported to result in symptoms that could be likened to post-traumatic stress disorder. It is, then, no surprise that Djokovic could be trying to escape those stressors by trivialising the possibility of claiming a 25th Grand Slam.” 

Djokovic is yet to drop a set at this year’s Australian Open, easing to three routine victories during the first week of the tournament. After his scheduled fourth-round opponent, Jakub Mensik, withdrew due to injury, the Serb is confirmed as a quarter-finalist and appears well positioned to mount a challenge for the championship. 

However, if the 38-year-old is to triumph, he’ll likely have to overcome one of, if not both, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. The duo, who currently sit atop the men’s rankings, have proven to be Djokovic’s undoing in five of his last eight Grand Slam appearances. 

Asked if the prospect of that could be a separate psychological battle for Djokovic, Dr Heaviside-Brown added: “Research I have conducted suggests that when athletes perceive opponents as particularly strong, their attentional focus can shift away from their own performance and towards the opponent, causing a distraction. Again, strategies centred on controlling the controllables may be effective for managing this. Athletes cannot control how opponents perform, but they can control their preparation, competitive routines, and in-competition thoughts – which will be vital for Djokovic should the situation arise.”